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To Chop Or Not To Chop: The Study
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To Chop Or Not To Chop: The Study

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Months ago, we looked at the pros and cons of chopping or not chopping your blind. This final installment of the chop or no chop debate is the first hand by hand case study on the subject. As promised, over approximately 3 months, I recorded every blind on blind situation where chopping was an option. As illustrated in the first article, I did not chop and was able to compile a reasonable data set to objectively evaluate how you should answer the question for yourself.

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The data set includes a total of 33 instances in 2/5 No Limit Hold em of everyone folding to me and the other blind over the time period between July 15th and September 30th. I did not chop any of the 33 times. I showed a net profit of $263 over these hands. This averaged a net value of approximately $8 or 1.5 big blinds per instance. All of these figures include the rake that was paid to the house.

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The study below definitively showed significant monetary value based on not chopping blinds. As the data set shows, much of this value was attributed to angry tilt related mistakes that my opponents made. This pattern of opponents giving substantial tilt equity repeats itself time and time again when your opponent realizes that you do not chop.

 

Enjoy the extra money Poker Politico Nation!

 

Research and Analysis By: Jason Bloom

December 18, 2015


 


 

Notes: The hands outlined below took place in a 2/5 No Limit Hold em game in Jacksonville, Florida. The maximum rake in this game is $5 + $1 jackpot. Some hands were played at a reduced rake due to a short-handed table. Amount paid in tips to the poker dealer were not considered in this study.

SB= Small Blind

BB= Big Blind

O= Offsuit cards

S= Suited cards

 

#1

My Hand: 62o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Folded Preflop

Net Profit: -$2

 

#2

My Hand: A9o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise $20 Preflop. My opponent becomes agitated and shoves all in for $300. Major tilt over bet by my opponent. Lots of tilt equity!! I decided to fold and wait for him to make this grave of a mistake when I have decent holdings.

Net Profit: -$20

 

#3

My Hand: Q6o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent in small blind was upset that I would not chop. He moved all in for $200. I obviously folded. Lots of tilt equity here. Any good hand loses all of its value and bad hands are bluffing $200 out of position to win $5.

Net Profit: -$5

 

#4

My Hand: 29o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I folded preflop.

Net Profit: -$2

 

#5

My Hand: 29o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent in small blind limps $5. I raise $20, and he folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#6

My Hand: 68o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: 2-4-10

Turn:

River:

Action: I call the $5 Big Blind. My opponent checks. Opponent checks flop. I bluff $10 into a passive uninterested opponent. He folds

Net Profit: +3

 

#7

My Hand: 47o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: 3-4-J

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent completes $5 Big Blind. I check Preflop. I flop a pair of 4’s. My opponent checks and I bet $15. He folds

Net Profit: +$3

 

#8

My Hand: A3o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise $15 Preflop. My opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#9

My Hand: 28o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: 4-7-K

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent completes the $5 from the Small Blind and I check Preflop. Passive opponent checks flop. I bet $5 on the flop and he folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#10

My Hand: KJs SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise $20 Preflop. My opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#11

My Hand: 26o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I fold Small Blind Preflop to an aggressive Big Blind.

Net Profit: -$2

 

#12

My Hand: J7s SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise tight opponent $20 Preflop. Opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#13

My Hand: J8s SB

Opponent Hand: A10

Flop: K- J- 10

Turn: 3

River: K

Action: I raise a fairly solid player $20 Preflop. We both check the flop and the turn. When the second King comes on the river, I lead out $25 on the river and got a call from my opponent.

Net Profit: +$43 (Reduced rake)

 

#14

My Hand: J8o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent in Small Blind limps $5. I raise $20 Preflop and my opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#15

My Hand: 92o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent in Small Blind folds Preflop. I get a walk…

Net Profit: +$2

 

#16

My Hand: 74s (clubs) BB

Opponent Hand: KJ

Flop: Jh- 3c- 2c

Turn: 10c

River: Jd

Action: My opponent limps $5 and I raise Preflop. He flat calls. I flop a flush draw and my opponent flops top pair. Opponent bets $25 and I call on the flop. I turn the flush, my opponent checks and I bet $40 on the flop and am called. The river gives my opponent three Jacks. He leads out $65, and I call.

Net Profit: +$143

 

#17

My Hand: J4o BB

Opponent Hand: 28o

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent in Small Blind folds his cards face up and gives me a free walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#18

My Hand: AJo BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: A-J-7

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent raises $20 Preflop and I flat call Preflop. I flop top two pair. Opponent leads out $25 and I raise $65 on the flop. My opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$38

 

#19

My Hand: 23o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I folded Preflop.

Net Profit: -$2

 

#20

My Hand: J4s BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: Opponent raises $20 Preflop and I fold.

Net Profit: -$5

 

#21

My Hand: AKo SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: 3-9-6

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise $20 Preflop and my opponent calls. I continuation bet $30 on the flop and my opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$19

 

#22

My Hand: K9o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise my passive opponent $20 Preflop and he folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#23

My Hand: K5s SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise same passive opponent as Hand #22 Preflop $15. He folds.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#24

My Hand: 32s BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent folds Preflop and I get a walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#25

My Hand: 92o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: I fold Preflop and do not complete Big Blind.

Net Profit: -$2

 

#26

My Hand: 10 8o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent folded Preflop giving me a walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#27

My Hand: J10o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: 8- 10- K

Turn:

River:

Action: I raise $20 Preflop and my opponent calls. I flop middle pair and bet $20. My opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$15

 

#28

My Hand: 33 BB

Opponent Hand: 10 4s

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent folds face up and I get a free walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#29

My Hand: 77 BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent folds Preflop and I get a walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#30

My Hand: Q6s BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent folds Preflop and I get a walk.

Net Profit: +$2

 

#31

My Hand: J5o BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent in the Small Blind raises $20 Preflop. I fold.

Net Profit: -$5

 

#32

My Hand: A5o SB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop: A-9-2

Turn:

River:

Action: I limp and my opponent checks Preflop. I flop an Ace and lead out $15.

Net Profit: +$3

 

#33

My Hand: 33 BB

Opponent Hand: ??

Flop:

Turn:

River:

Action: My opponent completes the $5 bet in the Small Blind. I raise $20 Preflop and my opponent folds.

Net Profit: +$3

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